Thor's Board

Friday, December 30 @ 10:00 am MT on ESPN in Dallas, TX
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It feels like ages since the Cougars last took the field, even though it was less than a month ago.  Since that time Jake Heaps has transferred to Kansas, Norm Chow has left Utah to  become the head coach at Hawaii, and otherwise the landscape has been kinda boring.  But finally BYU’s bowl game is upon us, and it looks to be a good game.

Tulsa is a solid team out of Conference USA.  They finished third in the conference standings, but really should have been second, since they were in the same division as Houston, and thus didn’t have a chance to play them for the conference championship. Their loss to Houston was their only loss in conference play, though, and all their other losses on the year came against very good opponents, in fact, at the time of the games, each of those losses came to top 10 ranked teams (#1 Oklahoma, #8 Oklahoma St., #4 Boise St., and #8 Houston).  That is probably the biggest difference between these two teams, actually, in that BYU’s losses came to opponents that were good, but not quite that good.  Otherwise, they both lost to the “good” teams and beat the “not so good” teams.

If you’re like me and you remember with horror the last time BYU faced Tulsa, this isn’t quite the same team.  In that game back in 2007, if I recall the year correctly, Tulsa pulled out about every trick play you can imagine and had BYU’s defense completely turned inside out.  This year’s Tulsa team isn’t that same team.  They’re more balanced, and a lot like BYU.  They move the ball well in the air and they can score a lot of points, triggered off their mobile QB G.J. Kinne, who has a 64% completion rating on the season, with 25 TDs and 12 INTs.

The tale of the tape is that these two teams are really remarkably similar.  I think the edge is going to come down to which team can contain the other team’s QB.  Tulsa runs a hurry-up offense, so it’s going to be hard for BYU to set up blitz schemes effectively.  Bronco’s defensive gameplan will have to be sharp.

This game really could go either way, and it’s the first real test of how good BYU really is in many weeks.  If Riley Nelson can play the kind of game he played at Hawaii (as opposed to the kind of game he played against TCU) I think the Cougars have a good chance of coming back with a win, but Tulsa has the capability to match them blow for blow, so I don’t expect it to be an easy game.

Saturday, December 3 @ 5:30 pm MST on ESPN2 in Honolulu, HI
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I’m gonna go out on a limb here and say that this Saturday’s game in which the Cougars travel to Honolulu to face the Warriors, will be the toughest challenge for BYU mentally since the Utah game.  TCU was clearly a tougher challenge in terms of the quality of the opponent, but there are a lot of aspects to this game that present serious potential challenges to what I consider the most underwhelming potential 10-3 squad I ever remember seeing.  Let me break it down.

Hawaii is a Difficult Place to Play
It’s one big vacation.  The Cougars will be granted some time on Thursday to enjoy the surroundings, but they have to get back down to business.  I haven’t heard that married players were being permitted to bring their spouses, as they have done sometimes in the past, which might be sad for the ladies back home, but probably will help the players treat this like any other road game.  Still, Hawaii plays well at home and the Cougars have said for years that it can be hard to maintain focus down there with the sun and sand.  BYU leads this series all-time 19-8, and all 8 losses have come at Hawaii.

This is an Unusual Kind of Trap Game
Usually a “trap game” refers to coming off a big win and playing a softer team before another tough challenge.  That middle game catches teams with their guard down.  In this case, BYU is coming off a second bye week and their next game is the Armed Forces Bowl against a yet-to-be-determined opponent.  BYU has no great incentive for this game.  They’re already locked into the bowl game.  The season feels pretty much over.  This is a different type of a trap game, but it still has the same feel to it.  The veteran leaders and the seniors who are finishing their careers need to make sure the whole team plays up, rather than slacking off.  They still can go 10-3, maybe break the top 25 rankings and set up a good start for next year.

Hawaii Considers BYU their Real Rival
Hawaii is a team that is without a natural rival, but for years these two teams met annually as part of the old WAC, and many in Hawaii still consider BYU to be their one big rival, and they’re happy to see the matchup renewed.  I don’t think BYU sees it quite the same way, because the Cougars have Utah, but this contest does have a lot of history behind it, including Hawaii’s manhandling of the at-the-time undefeated and likely headed for the BCS 2001 team of Gary Crowton’s inaugural season, a game the Warriors won 72-45.  The last time they met was 2002 in Provo, a game the Cougars won 35-32.  It’s been almost a decade since they played, but Hawaii will definitely be fired up for this game.

The Warriors Have a Lot on the Line
Hawaii is 6-6 coming into this game, and must win in order to qualify for the bowl game they host in their own stadium.  That alone would be enough to put a little extra fight in the Warriors.  On top of that, though, the month on November was full of allegations of point shaving, originating with an anonymous letter to the Honolulu police claiming that Hawaii players were intentionally playing poorly as part of a gambling scheme.  Whether these allegations have any truth behind them, I expect the Warriors to fight hard to save face with a strong performance on national television to diffuse some of the suspicion and clear their names, as much as possible.  Hawaii always plays up for this game, especially in their own stadium.  They’ll try to be at their very best this week.

Now it isn’t all bad news for the Cougars, by any means.  Riley Nelson looks to be cleared to play, and his gritty leadership and playmaking will be useful against an aggressive and speedy Hawaii defensive front.  They’re strong against the run, so Riley’s scrambling ability could be very handy, assuming he can keep from getting busted up again.  I feel badly for Heaps, who was playing well again against soft opponents in Idaho and New Mexico St., but if Riley’s on the field, I think the Cougars’ odds improve.  The Hawaii secondary is vulnerable, if BYU can throw well.  Hawaii is a pass-heavy team and they have very talented wide receivers who are the highlight of their offense.  BYU’s secondary will have their hands full.  They don’t run a lot but can be effective when they need to be.  This will be a challenge for BYU’s front seven, who are run-stopping machines.  If I were Bronco, I’d use the linebackers who usually stop running backs to go heavily after sophomore backup QB David Graves, who is filling in for injured started Bryant Moniz.  If they can rattle him and throw off the passing game, they’ll make the secondary’s job a lot easier.

All in all, I expect this to be a much more entertaining game than anything we’ve seen from the Cougars in weeks.  Hawaii is a .500 team at the moment, but they’ll play better than that on Saturday.  I wish there was more on the line for the Cougars, but that’s a topic for another day.  I’m calling it in favor of the Cougars, but probably not another 42-7 kind of game.

Saturday, November 19 @ 8:15 pm MST on ESPNU in Provo, UT
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Last week’s game against Idaho went about exactly as expected…well, except for the part where Riley Nelson suffered several broken ribs and a punctured lung and was sent to the hospital and taken out of pretty much all of the remaining regular season games for the Cougars.  But other than that, the game pretty much followed the script.  BYU jumped out to a big early lead on offense, they were absolutely stifling on defense, and by the third quarter they had the deep bench on the field running the ball to eat up the clock.  James Lark even saw a full quarter of play at QB.

Although it made for a boring game, Cougar fans should be glad it went so smoothly, because that means Jake Heaps isn’t a lost cause.  Nobody wanted to see Riley get hurt, especially not after the sheer grit he’s shown on the field since he took over at starter, but every time he takes off running, you have to wonder if this is the time he doesn’t get up.  How ironic that he got hurt in the pocket, rather than on a scramble.

Now Heaps looked pretty darn good, albeit against a bottom feeder of the entire FBS.  I’m not gonna jump back on his bandwagon and say he’s worked out all his issues and will now go on to provide BYU with a national championship.  I will, however, say that I’m glad to see him playing better.  He didn’t have to show a lot of toughness, which is the attribute that I think he was sorely lacking and the one he needs to demonstrate in order to win over his teammates into showing the kind of heart they showed for Riley.  However, he did play well.  He distributed the ball much better than he did in the early part of the year, and he seemed much more relaxed.  The worst thing for him would have been to come out under the pressure of “this is my second chance.  I CAN’T SCREW THIS UP!”

Heaps and Co. won’t see a lot more of a challenge against New Mexico State either, in my opinion.  They’re better than Idaho, and they seem to be surging late in their season, so they’ll play hard, but I expect BYU to be just as dominant.  In fact, I’m picking a bigger spread than last week’s.  As long as the Cougars don’t get lazy, this should be another big win.  I want to see Heaps continue to play well, win over his teammates, and make Bronco sweat the decision he’s gonna have to make when Riley’s all patched up.

Saturday, November 12 @ 7:15 pm MST on ESPN2 in Provo, UT
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Let’s face it, folks, I’ve been a slacker since BYU’s loss to TCU.  I had big plans to write a detailed post-game analysis of that game, but I just couldn’t bring myself to do it.  The story of BYU this year has been pretty straightforward: beat the teams you’re expected to beat and lose to anyone you’d expect to lose to.  Utah was the big exception, since BYU was favored for that game, but clearly they should not have been.

And so that brings us to November, which is sadly the dullest part of BYU’s schedule this year.  Two bye weeks and two games that would fall into the “meh” category.  I’m not trying to disrespect Idaho and New Mexico St., but these are certainly games that would fall under “teams BYU’s expected to beat.”  Idaho is 2-7 on the year overall and only one of those two wins was against an FBS team, as they came from behind to beat San Jose St. last week.

The Vandals have recently turned their struggling offense over to sophomore QB Taylor Davis, who looks to be providing a spark that former starter Brian Reader was unable to generate.  Senior running back Kama Bailey had a breakout game as well, rushing for 163 yards and a pair of TDs.  Those are the two that BYU’s defense will need to focus on primarily.

On the other side of the ball, the Vandals perform better.  They are ranked 34th in the nation on rush defense, allowing only 125 yards per game.  Between Mike Alisa and co. and Riley Nelson’s constant threat on his feet, the Vandal defense will have their hands full.  That is, of course, providing the Cougars continue to make power running a priority.

What I’m looking for in the game is to see BYU pretty much dominate.  The mistakes that have prevented them from reaching their full potential need to be erased.  No more special teams gaffes, no more foolishly over-aggressive decisions by Riley Nelson trying to do too much because he feels like he needs to make a play or no one else will.  That’s pretty much what I wanted to say after the TCU game.  BYU this year, and arguably for several years now, has seriously lacked in mental toughness.  They hype themselves out of effective play when up against teams they feel they need to play up to.  Idaho shouldn’t be one of those teams, but on the flip side of that coin, BYU can’t afford to go into this game lazy either.  Idaho is not without the potential to throw a surprise punch or two.  They gave Virginia (6-3, 3-2) a scare an a narrow 21-20 overtime loss, and Hawaii (5-4, 3-2) needed a last second field goal to pull out a 16-14 victory.  So BYU can’t afford to let down their guard for this game.They’re coming off a bye, they know the strongest teams on the schedule are behind them, but if they don’t win out, they have no one to blame but themselves.

I know the season’s not over yet, and I’m still looking forward to watching the remaining games, just because I’m that kind of fan, but part of me is glancing to 2012 already and starting to wonder if this team has it in them to pull out a breakout season.  They certainly have some work to do to get there, and from where I’m sitting, that work should start this Saturday night against Idaho.

Friday, October 28 @ 6:00 pm MDT on ESPN in Arlington, TX
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Four weeks ago, if you had suggested that BYU had a fair chance of beating TCU, I would have laughed in your face (a derisive, scornful, bitter laugh with lots of spittle and reeking of garlic and such).  But that would have been four weeks ago.  Today, if you were to come to me and say, “Thor, I think BYU just might win this game,” I would likely nod pensively and say, “I do believe I agree with you, good sir and/or madam.”

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying it’s a lock for the Cougars, nor am I suggesting that the woes that plagued them early on this season are no longer matters of concern.  However, since the emergence of Riley Nelson, this offense has pretty much done a 180.  To be fair, Nelson isn’t solely responsible.  Mike Alisa has been a huge factor, the play calling has improved significantly, and the offensive line has improved by leaps and bounds.  All that being said, I think Nelson has served this year as the catalyst for the offense’s change of heart.  I said in a post earlier this season on this very blog that the offense needed a Bronco-type figure, someone to come in and do for them what Bronco did for the defense last year when they were abysmal, effectually turning them around.  I think Riley has been that figure this year, rallying his teammates around him through his tough, gritty playmaking and his willingness to put his own body on the line to make things happen.  I don’t think anyone can deny that the team has responded to Riley in a way that they never did for Heaps, and so Riley gets the nod from me for bringing some heart back to the offense.  And that is the reason, my friends, that I believe BYU has a fair chance of winning this game.

A fair chance of winning also means a fair chance of losing.  TCU is certainly not the dominant powerhouse they have been for the last several years under QB Andy Dalton, but they are still a very good, very fast team.  They’ve suffered two losses, one at the last minute and the other in overtime.  The first was their season opener against Baylor with their Heisman trophy candidate QB, and the other was against their in-state rival SMU.  Does that sound a little familiar?  I’m sure I’m not the only one to pick up on this, but BYU and TCU are looking remarkably similar in many ways.  Let me break it down for you:

Team records:
BYU 6-2
TCU 5-2

Losses so far:
BYU first lost to Texas (4-2 overall, 1-2 Big 12)
TCU first lost to Baylor (4-2 overall, 1-2 Big 12)

BYU next got hammered by in-state rival Utah.
TCU lost in OT to in-state rival SMU.

Stats/National Rankings:

Anybody seeing a pattern here? The one stat that’s most out of whack is rushing offense, but I did a little number crunching that I found very interesting.  Through the first four games of the year, BYU averaged 68 rushing yards per game.  Through the next four games, beginning with Utah State when Riley took the reins away from Heaps, BYU has averaged 249 rushing yards per game.  That’s obviously not just Riley, although he has averaged 69 rushing yards per game through though same four games.  Mike Alisa has been a huge impact, and the renewed emphasis on the run by the coaching staff started kicking in around the same time.  But still, if you were to erase the first four games from the slate and look at the last four games, BYU would be averaging 249 rushing yards per game, which would be 11th in the nation based on current stats.  That looks pretty similar to TCU’s stat, doesn’t it?

Now normally you’d hear all the arguments about how soft BYU’s schedule is this year and all that, but don’t be fooled.  Just looking at the two schedules, you can see that TCU’s isn’t any stronger on the surface than BYU’s.  TCU has notched up wins against such powerhouse teams as Louisiana-Monroe and FCS Portland State, as well as their usual Mtn. West fare in San Diego St. (4-2, 1-1), Air Force (3-4, 0-3), and New Mexico (0-7, 0-2).  SDSU has the best record of that group, but they haven’t beaten anybody of note.  Air Force is probably better than their record indicates, because their losses have included TCU, Boise St. and Notre Dame.  But you see what I’m getting at?  TCU hasn’t exactly loaded their schedule with powerhouses this year either.  If you don’t believe me, check out this independent measurement of strength of schedule, re-calculated as each game is played.  You’ll see that BYU is currently ranked 59th in strength of schedule.  TCU?  68th.

My point is this: you can say until the cows come home that TCU is a stronger, better, faster team.  They’ve had BYU’s number over the past three years to the collective tune of 101-17, but the Frogs were ranked #1 in total defense in each of those years, and that is not the case this year.  The long and short of this whole equation is that these are not the same teams that have met in the last three years.

So what will it take for BYU to win on Friday?  They need to keep their heads, not getting flustered like they did against Utah.  They need to run the ball, both with Nelson’s scrambling and Alisa’s power, and they need to defend.  Of those three, I think the defense will tell the tale.  BYU is soft in the secondary, so they have to pull linebackers into pass coverage too often.  If I were Bronco, I’d make TCU beat me in the air while dedicating my linebackers to stuffing the run and pressuring the QB.

The stats say these two teams are even, history disagrees.  When the final whistle blows on Friday, I’m putting my money on Riley, Alisa, Cody Hoffman and company to make one more play than the Frogs.  I’m picking the Cougars by 3 points.

Saturday, October 22 @ 1:00 pm MDT on BYUtv in Provo, UT
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I wouldn’t be so arrogant about BYU’s performance so far this year (which hasn’t been good enough to inspire arrogance) or so insulting to the Idaho State Bengals as to claim that BYU can coast through this week and start planning for TCU.  We’ve all seen enough FCS teams pull surprise upsets against FBS opponents that we know you can’t just phone these games in.  That being said, this is by far the least worrisome game on BYU’s schedule this year, so I expect the Cougars to win big and with relative ease, but that doesn’t mean I don’t want them to be prepared.  They can’t overlook any opportunity to improve things in game situations to make themselves stronger as they progress through the season.

So assuming things go as one would expect on Saturday, there are a few things I want to see from the Cougars this week, and they are as follows:

1. Improved play from the secondary.  This is the weak area of the team right now, and the Bengals throw on pretty much every play.  I want to see our guys provide better man coverage and better one on one coverage to free up the linebackers to pursue the QB more aggressively.
2. Cleaner play.  The penalties were costly against Oregon State.  The Cougars need to play cleaner games to stop shooting themselves in the foot when they start to get good drives going, or gift-wrapping free yards to the other team.
3. QB progress.  Riley Nelson will start, as he should, and I’d like to see him continue to look better with each snap, as he has done.  I’d love to see him put up four touchdowns in the first half and let Heaps close out the game.  As much as I don’t want to see a QB controversy, this is a good chance to let Heaps show whether he’s straightened out his head at all during his time on the bench.  I hope to see him take over with a big lead in the second half.
4. Get healthy.  The team got banged up a bit against Oregon St.  Most of the players are back this week, but if they can put the game away early, the backups should be able to get some reps while the starters rest up and heal up.

That’s what I’ll be looking for.  I don’t know a whole lot about Idaho State except that they pass a ton in an up-tempo offense and they just lost to Weber St. last week.  I hope I’m not overlooking them at all, but this one should be an easier week for the Cougars.  Famous last words, right?

Don’t you blow it, Cougs!

Saturday, October 15 @ 2:00 pm MDT on Fox College Sports/KBYU in Provo, UT
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It feels like a long time since I dropped into the ole blogosphere to post a pre-game outlook. Probably because I was on a 10 day vacation, but I’m home now and ready to get back in the saddle.  This Saturday’s game against the PAC-12′s Oregon State Beavers marks the start of the second half of BYU’s season and the first trip on the road in four weeks.

BYU has seen a lot of turmoil in the past few weeks, what with starting QB Jake Heaps being benched in the third quarter against Utah State and Riley Nelson rallying the team to come from behind to win that game.  Nelson having taken over the starting duties is a polarizing issue for Cougar fans.  Everybody seems to agree that he hasn’t shown the arm that you really want from your starter at Quarterback U, but you can’t argue that the offense has responded to his presence and played with more heart.  He’s a gutsy player, and if he can work on improving his passing, an area where he has shown some ability, albeit inconsistently, he could turn out to be really good for the team.  The most important thing BYU can do right now is not let themselves get sucked into a QB controversy like they had at the beginning of last year.  Everybody talks like Jake Heaps is still the guy they want to develop as the starter, and that seems smart, but how do you do that without taking valuable reps away from the guy who is actually winning games for you right now?  The whole affair makes me a little antsy, I don’t mind telling you.  I want to see Heaps perform well.  He’s certainly got the better arm, but until he gets his head on straight, I don’t want to risk letting him cost us wins.

On the other side of the ball, Oregon State is something of a conundrum.  They finally won their first game of the season last week against Arizona, a team who also has only one win this year and who in turn fired eight year head coach Mike Stoops over the loss.  But a lot of people believe that win will give the Beavers a boost of confidence heading into this game at home against the Cougars.  While they’ve been a dog in the PAC-12 for the last couple of years, they certainly have some talent, but it’s young talent, lacking in experience.  This team’s once explosive running game isn’t the same one you may have seen in previous years, since they no longer have Jacquizz Rodgers carrying the ball.  They’ve struggled with the run so far this year, and BYU’s tough front seven won’t make it any easier on them.  They also have a freshman QB taking the snaps in Sean Mannion, who has thrown for 1282 yards so far, but with only four touchdowns and seven interceptions (sounds a little familiar…*cough* HEAPS *cough*).

Most people are calling this game in favor of BYU, but not by much.  I think the Cougars’ defense will give them more of an edge than others are giving them credit for, but the thing that worries me is that Oregon St. will ride a wave of confidence coming out of their first win last week and come out ready to punch somebody in the mouth.  BYU is certainly improving week to week, but I’m just not sure how steady their legs are under the offense as yet.  Riley Nelson is an athlete, but if a fast defense hones in on his scrambling methods, I fear the Cougs will be in trouble.   I think this week will be the best preparation that the Cougars could ask for to toughen themselves up against a BCS team that’s on the ropes before they take on TCU in a couple of weeks.  I know they shouldn’t look ahead and all, but if they want to have any hope in that game, they need to start now by putting together four solid quarters against a team that won’t be a complete pushover.

Thor’s Pick: BYU by two touchdowns, mostly on the shoulders of the defense.